Welcome to the Lempert Report Live. On today’s broadcast Dollar Tree goes eggless, Price Chopper’s marketing, Weight Watchers gets into the prescription biz, Medicaid address food, a high school senior fights waste and on the bullseye breakfast before bed.
Welcome to the Lempert Report Live. On today’s broadcast Dollar Tree goes eggless, Price Chopper’s marketing, Weight Watchers gets into the prescription biz, Medicaid address food, a high school senior fights waste and on the bullseye breakfast before bed.
Welcome to the Lempert Report Live. On today’s broadcast Dollar Tree goes eggless, Price Chopper’s marketing, Weight Watchers gets into the prescription biz, Medicaid address food, a high school senior fights waste and on the bullseye breakfast before bed. Let’s get started. Dollar Tree has decided, that they're gonna stop selling eggs b ecause of the price of eggs.
Sally:Yes. And it's quite a time to stop selling eggs with Easter right around the corner. And we know that that's a really popular time for people to be buying eggs. But because the cost of the eggs has increased 60%, that they're going to pause on selling eggs, u ntil later in the ye ar.
Phil:But here's what I don't understand. There's this whole avian flu, eggs are now on average about$5 a dozen. They were about a year and a half ago, about a buck 99 in some cases here in Los Angeles, they're actually$7 a dozen. But here's what I don't understand. The bird f lu started January of 2022. So we're now a year an d t hree months into it, it only takes 18 weeks for a hen to be born and start laying eggs. So I don't get it. Why don't we have all these eggs and not have these issues? So Dollar Tre e, t hey're on a rapid tear, g ro wing, and I think that this is probably more of a PR stunt than anything else. Also on food news today, th er e's a story, just go to su pe rmarketguru.com- food news today tab that basically talks about the fact that RFID tags for livestock management will grow almost 10% b etw een 2022 and 2027. A l ot of that is with cattle, but a lso with poultry. So I think that, what we're really seeing is farmers struggling for animals, whether it's cows for beef or whether it's eggs. And I just don't understand why we have this issue. Again, 18 weeks to grow a hen to start to lay eggs. And we're now 65 weeks into it, where's all the chickens?
Sally:Well, yes, and one thing that we're hearing about the business of raising chickens is that we have so many chickens being raised, but we only have a few people actually managing large amounts of animals. And so the point of radio frequency identification tags would, to, would be to help them manage the wellness of these animals, e asier with these tags i s I believe the goal with this.
Phil:Yeah, I'm just really concerned. And I think that, to be honest with you, there's a little price gouging going on here. We've seen it with major food companies and now I think we're seeing it with egg producers. So let's move to Price Chopper. Price Chopper has decided to, for Frozen Food Month, create a new game called Daily Surprize. You register on their website or on their app, you can spin a wheel and get gift cards, magazine subscriptions. Does anybody get magazine subscriptions anymore? I d on't know. Donations to charities. You enter th eir s weepstakes and what they're saying is that it i ncreased sales when they did this test, not for Frozen Food Month. But they did it for eight weeks last year. And what I guess is really surprising to me, b as ically the way you play the game is you wipe away the digital condensation from a freezer window. Is gamification getting that lame?
Sally:Well, one thing we do know is that people do love to play games online. And so, it isn't surprising that someone might wanna engage in a game like this, especially if they can get rewards from it. If they can, win digital coupons, if they can, add more reward loyalty points to their card for benefits. It does make sense to me that they would wanna do it, but the great thing for Price Chopper is that they're getting people to register their information to sign up, and then they're seeing that translate to more sales i n the store.
Phil:Yeah. And Price Chopper, I've gotta tell you, I love that chain. They really do a good job, but I just don't get the condensation on the freezer door. That to me is weird. So Weight Watchers, especially since Oprah has become one of their major stockholders, has really gone through the roof, which is wonderful. However, I'm concerned that what they're doing now, there's this great article o n The Guardian, S usie Orbach wrote it. And, t hey've now acquired a company by t he name of S equence, which is a U S telehealth service that links patients with doctors who can prescribe medications that suppress appetite. We've talked before about Ozempic, some of the others, th at I think personally are really gonna create some serious health problems for us in the Nation. And Weight Watchers, I just don't understand Weight Watchers for years, because of the whole com radery wh en you went to Weight Watchers, you would weigh in and people would cheer if you lost a quarter of a pound and so on. And now they're gonna prescribe this drug. So people can lose 20, 25 pounds.
Sally:Yes. Sequence is a company that is there for weight loss through medications. And they claim that they treat biological factors that affect your weight gain or weight management. And the problem is that studies show are showing us that 97% of dieters regain the weight after they've lost it within three years. And that goes for Weight Watchers history too, because this is a calorie restriction based diet, which we have seen oftentimes doesn't work in the long run for people. So, the point that Susie Orbach is making in this great article that she's written is that these companies are signing people up and betting on their failure at these programs because they will continue to subscribe, they will continue to come back and to continue to try it. Now, I've put some thought into it, Phil, based on John Pandol's comment last week, weighing in on our Ozempic story and everything, I don't completely disagree with using a medication to help people. In extreme cases when they need to lose weight, we do that with other types of addictive behaviors that people have a hard time quitting. We use medication, but we have to use other methods of teaching people long-term weight management, how to eat, how to use intuitive eating, h ow to use mindful eating so that they can keep th at w eight off and they can be healthy.
Phil:Yeah. And also, let's not forget that Weight Watchers is banking on the fact that this medication you've gotta take for the rest of your life. So I don't know what a Weight Watcher's session c osts anymore. I know it was like five bucks years ago, b ut it's probably more now. But if you can get somebody hooked on this drug, yo u're gonna have a customer for life or they're gon na ga in weight and ca n't go to Weight Watchers anymore. So it'll be interesting. Their whole approach to this I think is really in contrast to what the founder, for go t her name, but t he founder of Weight Watchers had, which was more collaboration. Jean Nidetch is the one who starte d Weigh t Watchers, and I think that she's probably turning over in her grave, as s he, hears us talking about this. So Medicaid has finally woken up and decided that if you have a waiver to get food in pilot programs you're actually gonna be able to feed a lot of people more healthy foods. And I applaud what they've done. So far you've got Arkansas, Oregon, and Massachusetts who have done this Medicaid for groceries. And now New Mexico, Washington, New York, New Jersey, Delaware and Maine are getting waiver requests that give money for nutrition support. See, I think t hat this is a great way to change behaviors and combat obesity.
Sally:Yes, I think this is wonderful. And yes, seeing New Mexico, Washington, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maine joining those other states that are already doing this is great. And hopefully we'll see more. We are seeing a lot of studies coming out right now showing that if we help with food security and help people gain access to fresh, nutritious foods, that our healthcare costs go down. In fact, there's a study recently that we've talked about, Phil, about diabetics and about how, if they are provided with a box of fresh food each week that they can consume healthily that their medication costs are actually going down.
Phil:Yeah, it's a great step in the right direction. Changing behavior. Talking about changing behavior. FMI, the Food Industry Association, last week had a press briefing where they talked about what grocers can expect in inflation and food prices in 2023. And basically, Andy H arig, F MI's Vice President of Tax Tr ade a n d S ustainability le d t he pr ess b riefing and basically said that inflation is go nna r emain on food prices this year. And maybe next year they'll finally come down. But even though we've seen prices decrease, it takes a whi le to get into the food system. So if your price of soy and wheat goes down by the time that feed gets to the cows and the poultry and so on, cou ld ta ke a whi le. S o, Ricky Vol pe, w ho's an associate professor at Agribusiness at Cal Pol y, gr ea t guy, really smart, said, we're not gonna hit it this year. Maybe next year prices will come down. FMI also surveyed a bunch of consumers and found that 48% of th em in February said they're very concerned about rising food prices. That's up eight perce ntage points from October. And 43% sur vey ed also in February said they're worried about having enough money to pay for the food they need, which is up from 35% who ans wered the same question based in October. So we really have a conun d rum here where consumers are very concerned about the prices of food because of the supply chain. It takes a while t o see these prices decrease and these experts, from F MI and and Vol pe a re sa ying not gonna happen this year. Probably gonna happen next year. Hopefully.
Sally:Hopefully. And you know what else is interesting is seeing how shoppers are shifting more and more to private brands. So the retailers are in a great position here, that have their own brands, to promote those brands to their shoppers. Because more and more shoppers are starting to trust those brands and think that they are of equal quality of the brands that they have ha ve b ought historically.
Phil:Absolutely. And there's, I guess, it was Loblaws who started it with President's Choice many years ago t hat really upped the quality of store brands to exceed the national brands. I'll never forget Dave Nichols who wa s a t that point, the CEO of Loblaws, hi s favorite product was their chocolate chip cookie. And what they did is they looked at the number one brand of chocolate chip cookies, and I'm go nna g et the numbers wrong, but let's say each cookie had 10 chocolate chips in it. Well, he'd said, we're gonna put in 15, just to, to make it better. And it really worked very, very well. So, good for all these store brands that are really upping the game as it relates to quality. You look at Al di, you look at Trader Joe's, you look at a lot of the Kroger products, th ey've really done a great job. And there's no reason why consumers shouldn't try, store brands. I know that the brands who are watching us and listening to us don't want to hear that. But the reality is that there's been more innovation on private brands t han there has been i n a lot of the national brands that are just going for brand extensions and they're really not being very innovative. So, talking about innovation, this past week on Lost in the Supermarket, I spoke to a high school senior who really wants to change the way people think about food in the communities that she's in. And this person is one of the people to watch c uz she's g onna change the world, the food world. She is also a coding expert. So everything that she built on the website a nd the app she did herself. So for the full episode, just go to supermarketguru.com, click on the lost in t he supermarket tab on the top. But here's a little bit of what she ha d t o say. You're a high school student, you obviously have eaten out a lot. What gave you the passion to help these restaurateurs?
Sophie:Yeah, I think it really started in March of 2020. So, we saw a lot of these local restaurants really struggling along the packing to close down and switching out to only takeout. And so, being someone who is a foodie and loves supporting local businesses, it's restaurants, how I try to think about what I could do. And I had a little bit of computer science experience at the time, and I also had a lot of free time on my hands. So with that, I just started drafting up some ideas and ways to help. And Bellevue Bites somehow came to light from that drafting and just brainstorming a place to help
Phil:On today’s Bullseye– cereal isn’t just for breakfast anymore. Post Consumer Brands, the cereal company known for Raisin Bran, Honey Maid S’Mores, Grape-Nuts and Fruity Pebbles, has now introduced a new line of cereals that it wants you to include in your nightly sleep routine. It’s called Sweet Dreams. A“4th meal of the day” concept that is a cereal of crunchy flakes and almonds, available in 2 flavors: Blueberry Midnight and Honey Moonglow with, according to the company, a nighttime herbal blend of lavender and chamomile, and curated vitamins and minerals like Zinc, Folic Acid and B vitamins to support natural melatonin production. Sweet Dreams Honey Moonglow cereal has 240 calories, 6 grams of fat, 180 mg of sodium, 43 grams of total carbs, and contains 12 grams of added sugars from cane sugar, corn syrup, honey and molasses. That’s before adding milk which naturally contains 13 grams of sugar in a cup. According to the National Institutes of Health, or NIH, Added sugars not only negatively affects health and life quality, but their published study, Relationship Between Added Sugar Intake and Sleep Quality Among University Students: A Cross-sectional Study concluded that poor sleep quality was significantly related to higher added sugar intake. Post says its goal is to help people establish healthy nighttime habits“by providing a nutrient dense before-bed snack” that supports your sleep routine. Seriously? Here’s the facts: more than half of all adults in the United States experience difficulty falling asleep, and 1 in 5 have insomnia. So I guess a brilliant brand manager at Post came up with Sweet Dreams to boost sales and create a 4th meal of the day. And ignored the science about added sugars. To be fair, the cereal does contain Zinc, which has shown to improve sleep quality. Sweet Dreams has 50% of the Daily Value of Zinc, that translates to around 5 to 6 mg of Zinc. But in an NIH published study, sleep improved when the participants consumed 15 mg daily for 12 weeks. The cereal also contains Niacin– 80% of the recommended daily value– but studies show that the niacin dosages for better sleep range between 50 to 1,000 mg. Sweet Dreams contains about 13 mg. Yes, Food as Medicine is the buzzword of the day– but if in fact it is going to change our health outcomes it has to be steeped in rigorous and proven science. I do like the fact that the first ingredient is Whole Grain wheat and whole grains is linked to better sleep. As far as the claim that Sweet Dreams ingredients support natural melatonin production, that’s partly true. Almost all plants, including tomatoes, rice, walnuts and olives contain melatonin, and zinc, magnesium and B vitamins support its production. But to synthesize melatonin we need tryptophan, an amino acid that is in milk, salmon, tuna, nuts and poultry. So, make sure you add milk to your Sweet Dreams– it’ll also taste a lot better than adding salmon or chicken. Or as the old wives tale goes– maybe just have a glass of warm milk before bedtime? It does contain tryptophan, magnesium, calcium, B vitamins, potassium, Vitamin D and melatonin. And do we really need a 4th meal of the day, after all Centers for Disease Control& Prevention reports that the percent of adults aged 20 and over that are obese or overweight tops 73%; and according to the 2020-2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans added sugars can lead to health problems including weight gain, obesity, type 2 diabetes and heart disease– sugars should be less than 10% of our daily total calories.The Lep er Re port is all about inspiring ideas, making our industry think and challenging each other. Let's think about being the shopper and how we can bring our supermarkets and restaurants closer to meet their needs. I hope you'll come back to join us on next week's installment of Leper Rep ort Li ve. When we focus on the biggest and best insights and the things that really matter, be sure to visit supermarket guru.com for th e la test marketing analysis issues and trends. And don't forget to jo i n us ba ck here next Monday at 2:30 PM Eastern for mor e.